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The Canadian Case Study
Background
Method: Assess Risk and Uncertainties in Pathways
I) Capping Oil Sands GHG emissions and methane reduction
II) Paced Oil Sands development and land use protection
Use of
GCAM-BC3 Integrated Assessment Model,
Calliope Energy Systems Model, and
E3ME Energy, Economy and Environmental Model
Stakeholder Consultation to capture the perspective of communities involved regarding the socio-economic impact of pathways
The TRANSrisk project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 642260
100 Mts / Year CO2 emissions limit for Oil Sands sector
Carbon Tax
30 CAD/tCO2
2022 => 50 CAD/tCO2
+energy efficiency,
+renewables,
+carbon capture and storage,
-methane flaring
Increase protected natural areas and tradition land use rights from 10% to 40%
Implementation of rigorous industrial best practices for companies operating in the area
III) Supporting a clean energy mix
Carbon Tax
> 30 CAD / t CO2
30% Renewables in the Electricity sector by 2030
Increase of Solar, Wind, & Geothermal Energy
+ 5GW RES by 2030
+ 400,000 Geothermal Wells
Limited development of oil sands
Substitution of coal generation by NG (67%) & RES (33%)
Canada: 1.6% of Global GHG Emissions
Among the Top 10 emitters
Alberta: 37.4% of National Emissions in 2014
Paris Agreement: 30% reduction of GHG emissions compared to 2005 levels by 2030
Current production: 2.5 million barrels per day (bl/d) or 70 Mt of GHG emissions
Aim: Exploring Low Carbon Energy Pathways in Alberta